Is the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Jockey Club more profitable? Compare the profitable business of the "two major casinos"

 

The author is not a moral defender. Hong Kong football and horse racing betting is also legal. But the author still advises readers not to gamble. The reason is simple-you will lose money. This is common sense in mathematics, and it is also the most fundamental difference between gambling and investment. So it is a big mistake to say that investment is like gambling. Some are less similar, but they are still more different than the same. Where does the horse club get so much money to do good deeds? If you open a casino, you will occasionally lose money, and there are always betting players who are prosperous; but in a long way, the dealer will definitely win money. Investment is just the opposite. Some people think it is a zero-sum game, which is very wrong. Futures and so on are likely to be zero-sum games, where someone loses and someone wins. But the stock market is not. In theory, everyone can buy Tencent Holdings (00700) for 100 yuan and sit down until now, and no one will lose. So the stock market is a game of wealth creation. Of course, the gambling boy's surname is Lai, and so is the investor. Even if you tell you that the long bet will lose, some people think that "someone will always win" or "it may be me." The reality is that most people overestimate their own abilities and underestimate the abilities of others. The author has worked in a financial institution for many years, and is entrusted with an important task by the boss every time it comes to competitions. It is not to help the old to post the championship, but to play some vision-testing games for colleagues to participate in.

The author has hosted games for many years, and found that those who often watch football matches are generally not winners; instead, female colleagues who have not watched football games for N years often guess the most accurately. This doesn't mean that guessing the champion depends on luck. Everyone has public information. Female colleagues who don't watch the game can know which team is the favorite by pressing a button on the Internet. And your unique experience may not be better than that of a female colleague. On the other hand, some people compare the Jockey Club with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388). There are similarities and differences between the two. Many events in casinos and jockey clubs are largely gambling against gamblers, but the chances are used to ensure long-term wins. Will it be profitable for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to order horses? But the role of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is just to take a little bit of money for each transaction. Theoretically, when the casino is very lucky, it may keep losing money (for example, spread out the dice and everyone buys it), but the Hong Kong Stock Exchange cannot be blasted by you.

But what are the similarities between the two? It is a legal monopoly, and this is an even more invincible moat. With a legal monopoly, the Jockey Club's natural financial resources are rolling in. Because it is an exclusive business, there is no competition at all. Therefore, the odds of the Jockey Club are inevitably worse than those of overseas websites. For example, in the popular France, the winning odds are 5 times, but many overseas websites can offer 5.5 times or even 6 times. In extreme terms, the Jockey Club can collect your gambling, and then "shoot" it overseas, and profit is guaranteed by just taking the difference (the actual situation is of course more complicated). The operation of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is different, but it is also because of its legal monopoly status and long-term profits. In the end, many people think that gambling is to buy horses. In fact, it is not. The gambling against you is not the opponent team or the jockey club, but other gamblers. Similarly, stocks are also a human game. The author likes a sentence:

The last Later is the point. If they are professional gamblers, they will not buy the strongest team for a long time. They probably don't even care about which team is stronger. The important thing is which team is seriously underestimated. This is like Netflix and Tesla. Before, many people were half-believing and worried that they would explode, and finally break through the difficulties, and investors will have strong returns. The problem is that investors can buy stocks at high prices, but buy horses and waves. Even if they know that the English team is undervalued and are now the second most popular, they still cannot "sell". They still have to expect it to win the cup. color. Therefore, buying stocks is better than gambling.

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港交所、馬會邊個更好賺？比較「兩大賭場」暴利生意

不少投資者都愛將賭博和投資混為一談。本文將探討兩者的相同及相異之處。

筆者並非道德悍衞者，香港足球及賽馬博彩也是合法。但筆者依然建議讀者不要賭博。原因很簡單——會輸錢。這是數學常識，也是博彩和投資最根本的分別。 所以說投資如賭博是大錯特錯，有些少相似，但仍是異多於同。馬會何來如此多錢做善事？開賭場，偶然會輸錢，也總有賭仔發達；但拉長來說，莊家必然贏錢。 投資正好相反，有人以為是零和遊戲，錯得很。 期貨等就很可能是零和遊戲，有人輸就有人贏。但股市不是，理論上人人都可以100元買騰訊控股（00700）坐到現在，沒有人會有損失。所以股市是創造財富的遊戲。 當然賭仔姓賴，投資者也是，即使告訴你長賭必輸，有人認為「總會有人贏」、「可能是我」。現實是絕大多數人高估自己的能力，也低估其他人的能力。 筆者任職金融機構多年，每逢大賽，都會被老闆委以重任。不是幫老細貼冠軍，而是搞些考眼光的遊戲供同事參加。

筆者主辦遊戲多年，發現經常看球賽的，一般不會是贏家；反而是N年不看球賽的女同事，往往猜得最準。 這並不代表猜冠軍全靠運氣，公開資料人人有，不看球賽的女同事上網按個掣就知哪隊是熱門。 而閣下的獨門心得，不見得勝過女同事睇靚仔估冠軍。 另一方面，有人會將馬會和港交所（00388）相提並論。兩者也是有同有異。賭場及馬會不少項目，很大程度上是和賭客對賭，但通過機會率確保長期必勝。 港交所定馬會好賺啲？ 但港交所的角色，卻只是每單交易抽點水。理論上，賭場運氣極差時，可能會不停輸錢（例如鋪鋪開圍骰而又全部人都買），但港交所卻不能被你煲爆。

但兩者相同之處是甚麼？是法定壟斷，這才是更無敵的護城河。 有了合法壟斷地位後，馬會自然財源滾滾。因為是獨家生意，根本沒有競爭。 所以馬會的賠率必然較海外網站為差，例如大熱的法國，奪冠賠率是5倍，但海外網站很多都能提供5.5倍，甚至6倍。 極端來說，馬會大可以收取你的博彩，然後「射到」境外，光是吃差價就已經保證了利潤（實際情況當然較為複雜）。港交所運作不同，但也是因為法定壟斷地位而長賺長有。 最後，很多人以為賭博是買波買馬，其實不然，和你對賭的不是對家球隊，也不是馬會，而是其他賭仔。同樣地，股票也是人的遊戲。筆者很喜歡一句說話：

最後的Later才是重點。 若是職業賭徒，根本不會長買最強的隊伍，他們很可能連哪一隊較強都不關心。重要的是，哪一隊被嚴重低估。這就像是Netflix和Tesla，之前不少人半信半疑，擔心會爆煲，最後突破難關，投資者才有極強的回報。 問題是，投資者可平買貴賣股票，但買馬、買波，即使早早知道英格蘭球隊被低估，現在變成第二熱門，仍不能「沽出」，還是要期望它捧盃才有派彩。 所以，買股票還是比賭博好。